Week five has arrived! Here is a preview and some picks for the weekend. Is there an upset brewing in Seattle? Read on and see!
Houston Roughnecks (4-0) at Seattle Sea Dragons (2-2)
Time/TV: 10:30 pm ET, ESPN/ESPN+
Date: March 16
Line: HOU (-3) @ SEA, O/U 41.5
In one of the marquis matchups of the weekend, Seattle hosts the undefeated Roughnecks. The Sea Dragons have won the last two games and the offense is clicking. Houston continues to dominate and looks better and better. This game has many storylines, including the number one scoring offense (Houston) against the number one yardage offense (Seattle). Going off of those stats alone, this matchup looks to be a shootout. But there is a more telling factor that will likely determine the outcome of this game: turnover margin. Houston is currently at +4 in turnover margin, while Seattle sits in last place at -8. As hot as Seattle is right now, the turnover stat is too difficult to ignore.
The Pick: Houston 25, Seattle 19
DC Defenders (4-0) at St. Louis Battlehawks (3-1)
Time/TV: 7:00 pm ET, ESPN/ESPN+
Date: March 18
Line: DC (-1.5) @ STL, O/U 42
DC is in for a hostile environment this weekend, especially after the way the first matchup between these two teams ended. Ejections and suspensions marred an otherwise thrilling finish in DC as the Defenders handed the Battlehawks the first loss of the season. Adding to the fervor will be yet another capacity crowd in St. Louis. The Battlehawks played in front of over 38,000 last weekend. Still, “defense travels” is a cliché for a reason. Pair that with the number one rushing attack in the XFL and the Defenders will escape the Battle Dome with a narrow victory.
The Pick: DC 23, St. Louis 22
Orlando Guardians (0-4) at Vegas Vipers (0-4)
Time/TV: 10:00 pm ET, FX/ESPN+
Date: March 18
Line: ORL @ LV (-7.5), O/U 42
This is a classic good news-bad news situation. For one of these teams, the futility of a winless season will end. For the other, the frustration will continue. Vegas has the advantage here, as the Vipers have demonstrated the ability to score points, averaging 17.5 points per game. Orlando also gives up more points than any other team in the league, which is another advantage for Vegas. If the Vipers can finally finish in the 4th quarter, then this game should make Vipers fans happy for the first time all year.
The Pick: Vegas 26, Orlando 19
Arlington Renegades (2-2) at San Antonio Brahmas (1-3)
Time/TV: 9:00 pm ET, ESPN 2
Date: March 19
Line: ARL @ SA (-2.5), O/U 36
In what will likely be the lowest-scoring game of the weekend, Arlington travels to San Antonio in what will be the first of back-to-back games against the Brahmas. Both teams are averaging less than 20 points per game but are also giving up less than 20 points per game. So it would seem that the first team to 20 will win. Arlington seems poised to make another quarterback change as Kyle Sloter turned the ball over four times. The Renegades are +1 on the season in turnover differential but were -3 last weekend. San Antonio is even so far in turnover margin and will have home field advantage this weekend. San Antonio gets to 20 first.
The Pick: San Antonio 20, Arlington 16
@ArenaFanKen contributed to this article. David Taylor can be found on Twitter @DavidTaylorXFL