Wins and Losses by the Numbers: Statistical look at the XFL Week 1

by Anthony Reinhard

Introducing a weekly article taking a look at the XFL’s elo ranking and mathematical likelihood of winning for each team.

Each week the stats will be reviewed and revised based on the outcomes of the previous games.

For more details, including an interactive schedule breakdown by team, be sure to check out http://statbutler.com/xfl/

Elo Projections

The methodology being used is based on FiveThirtyEight’s pre-2019 NFL elo model. Pre-season ratings were computed based on XFL champion futures odds on Bovada.

The difference between two team’s ratings is equal to the point spread between those two teams. The home team will also get a 2.6 point home-field advantage. An average team will have a rating of zero.This page will be updated as games are played.


Upcoming Games

Based on the elo rankings, below are the forecasts for this week’s XFL games! The length of the bars below reflect win probability and point spread can be found in the parenthesis.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.